All the major indices are adding ~1% this morning, but we’re not buying it. Literally, we’re not getting long anything right now. Some things to consider:

• This subprime mortgage / credit crunch stuff isn’t over yet, and we haven’t seen any persuasive evidence that Fed actions will be sufficient to smooth everything over.
• The downtrending channel that developed in many stocks and indices over the past month is only now being tested on the upside, and until that channel ceiling starts to act as support on an upward move, there’s good reason to be cautious.
• Although a VIX of 23 would have seemed scary even a few weeks ago, volatility has been getting plowed for several days now, and it’s time for at least a modest bump.

Of course, this is all just wild speculation - I mean, who are we to be so pessimistic? Dow 15,000 coming right up; break out the all-time high graphic!