Oct
25
Filed Under (Iron Condor, Trades) by CondorTrader on 25-10-2007

CelgeneHere are some trade ideas for your Friday morning. Normal “bonus trade” disclaimers apply: these obviously aren’t part of the iron condor strategy that we trade with our members, and they could completely blow up in your face. So trader beware.

The first two picks are some biotech names that have taken a hit recently:

  1. Part of the problem with Celgene (CELG) is that they sit around all day playing with models of molecules (pictured, from their site). Actually, they made the inexcusable error of not doubling sales of their key product over the past 12 months: in fact it only boosted sales by 97%, and apparently that warrants an 8.5% decline in the stock. False. So the first thing to say is that this is a good time to grab some shares if you’re into value investing. But more importantly, this name is due for a recovery of some sort. The Nov 70 calls are $0.65. Even better, it bounced right off the 200 DMA today at 60.26 and stayed up from there, so selling the Nov 60/65 put vertical for $1.85 doesn’t look super risky, and offers a 58% return on capital risked in just 22 days. You could be a bit more conservative and sell the Nov 55/60 put spread for $0.45, as it would take some pretty heavy selling to break through that $60 support.
  2. Biogen (BIIB) has also been having a tough time of late. You could gamble on a bounce naked by buying the Nov 80 calls for $0.85, or cover yourself and save us all the embarrassment by buying the Nov/Dec 80 calendar spread for $1.75. After all, if things go really well, you can always roll your short Nov calls up or out.

Weird things going on in tech today, not the least of which was a new all time high for Microsoft (MSFT), on a day when Apple (AAPL) is down 1.7%. If you’re an Apple fanboy like we are, you won’t mind shorting Microsoft here and buying some Apple shares. Microsoft’s 2-day RSI is above 98, so some profit-taking soon is likely, though be careful about that $0.11 dividend coming up. You could maybe do this as a 3:2 ratio of MSFT:AAPL if you want to take a more short-term approach.

Oh, and you should not sell iron condors on any of these stocks, ever!

If you liked this post, please subscribe to our full RSS feed. You may also have our posts delivered directly, for free, via Email. If you are particularly clever, you will want to subscribe to our options trading newsletter.




Comments:
3 Comments posted on "Bonus Trades: Beaten-up Biotech and a Tech Pair"

[...] Check it out! While looking through the blogosphere we stumbled on an interesting post today.Here’s a quick excerpt [ Celgene]Here are some trade ideas for your Friday morning. Normal “bonus trade” disclaimers … ), on a day when Apple (AAPL) is down 1.7%. If you’re an Apple fanboy like we are, you won’t mind shorting Microsoft here and buying some Apple shares. Microsoft’s 2-day RSI is above 98, so some profit [...]


[...] you caught our Bonus Trades post on Thursday night, you got some free picks that could have made you a very happy camper by [...]


Bonus Trades: Tech And Biotech [Followup] - Zecco.com on October 29th, 2007 at 10:56 pm #

[...] Trades: Tech and Biotech [Followup] If you caught our Bonus Trades post on Thursday night, you got some free picks that could have made you a very happy camper by [...]