Nov
21
Filed Under (Iron Condor, Market commentary, Strategy, Trades, Volatility) by CondorTrader on 21-11-2007

Plenty of selling today, sure, and the foreign markets don’t look ready to provide any help any day soon. (Glad we’re not China A-share holders.) So this could turn into an ugly holiday season.

But there’s always a bright side, and its name is volatility. Consider the following facts:

  1. Implied volatility in SPX is right back up to its August highs, which, as you’ll recall, are the highest levels seen in years. Note that we’re using the 90 day reading rather than the usual 30 day, because all the short-term data is screwy because of the holidays.
    SPX IV 11-21-07
  2. The VIX, on the other hand, is nowhere near its August highs. Even with today’s 8-10% pop, a 27 reading is still some distance from the 32.50 - 37.50 range we saw on August 16.
  3. You can sell volatility. Maybe the obvious choice is VIX options, but those are a lot more complicated than they look, and should probably be avoided if you’re not prepared to deal with all their moving parts.

Instead, why not sell an iron condor, on the thesis that things may settle down a bit (regardless of which direction) as people check out for Thankskwanzanukkahboxingdayistmas? Our members are already well positioned, but if you want to join in on the market-neutral fun, you could sell the Dec SPY 133/135/150/152 iron condor for a credit of about $0.86. For those of you who are new to all this, that’s

+1 Dec SPY 133 put

-1 Dec SPY 135 put

-1 Dec SPY 150 call

+1 Dec SPY 152 call

for a net credit somewhere in the neighborhood of 0.86, or $86 per position. Like any other trade, these things can be tough to fill sometimes, so don’t be a jerk about your price - you have to tweak things sometimes to get your order filled.

Last thing - usual “bonus trade” disclaimers apply, even though this is an iron condor. This pick isn’t being autotraded, it’s not going in our performance ledger, it might never be mentioned again, it may lose you money, and it will scare your aunt Judy and steal all of your children’s toys. Now stop trading and reading blogs, and go talk to your family!

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Comments:
3 Comments posted on "Bonus Trade: Fearful Santa Iron Condor"
Bonus Trade: Fearful Santa Iron Condor - Zecco.com on November 21st, 2007 at 4:23 pm #

[...] the rest of this entry (and get access to our free bonus trade), just click over to our iron condor options trading blog… Published Wednesday, November 21, 2007 8:19 PM by condoroptions RSS [...]


[...] you made it into our Fearful Santa iron condor, you’re already well-positioned, provided we don’t get some kind of further [...]


[...] trades. Back on November 11, 2007, we posted the following position, which we dubbed the “Fearful Santa Iron Condor“: +1 Dec SPY 133 [...]