Tom Preston makes an interesting observation:

After a month of so-so rate cuts, subprime losses, and various and sundry news items that gave the market some mighty big moves up and down, the SPX is right where it was when we put on the experimental Dec 1335/1340/1560/1565 iron condor. As I write this, it’s not just close. It’s 1450, which is what it was on the Monday morning after last expiration. Is that market neutral enough for you? [link]

This is the whole point, you know? I mean, it’s an extreme example, but there are so many months that are like this, where after everyone is done reporting earnings and cutting rates and marking down their books, the dust settles and things are basically back where they were a month ago.  If you’re trying to game every directional move, you can easily get killed.  And if you sit on your hands and collect some theta premium, you end up looking like a genius.

Maybe we should call the site Genius Options.  Kidding.

(Hey, in other news, did you hear that the Lakota seceded from the United States?  About time.  Can’t find any mainstream news outlets picking up this story yet (except for FOX News, which never counts for anything), so maybe this is a PR event rather than a real event.)