Dec
27
Filed Under (Market commentary, Volatility) by CondorTrader on 27-12-2007

Okay, you can’t really call it a lull when you get a 192-point drop two days after Christmas. But anyway, we’re taking it easy on the blogging through the holidays, though we did publish a new trade today for our members.

Some items of note:

  • Be a little careful on Monday, it’s the end of the year and you never know what those crazy pension and mutual fund managers are likely to do.
  • Listening to Tom Sosnoff of thinkorswim the other day - his tentative volatility forecast for 2008 is that the VIX stays in a range of about 17.5 - 27.  Seems pretty reasonable.  We’re definitely seeing a change in the VIX trend, and fundamental factors suggest plenty of continued worry to go around.
  • Speaking of the VIX, you should already know by now that trading VIX options requires a bit more care than usual.  And you should know that trading VIX calendars is never, never a good idea.  Adam posts an analogy that makes the reason why crystal clear.
  • In other news, that whole thing about how the tryptophan in turkey makes you sleepy is a myth.

We’ll be posting our annual review hopefully this weekend. The numbers (as you can see) were quite good.  Here’s to a volatile 2008!

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