Okay, you can’t really call it a lull when you get a 192-point drop two days after Christmas. But anyway, we’re taking it easy on the blogging through the holidays, though we did publish a new trade today for our members.
Some items of note:
- Be a little careful on Monday, it’s the end of the year and you never know what those crazy pension and mutual fund managers are likely to do.
- Listening to Tom Sosnoff of thinkorswim the other day - his tentative volatility forecast for 2008 is that the VIX stays in a range of about 17.5 - 27. Seems pretty reasonable. We’re definitely seeing a change in the VIX trend, and fundamental factors suggest plenty of continued worry to go around.
- Speaking of the VIX, you should already know by now that trading VIX options requires a bit more care than usual. And you should know that trading VIX calendars is never, never a good idea. Adam posts an analogy that makes the reason why crystal clear.
- In other news, that whole thing about how the tryptophan in turkey makes you sleepy is a myth.
We’ll be posting our annual review hopefully this weekend. The numbers (as you can see) were quite good. Here’s to a volatile 2008!