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Archive | May, 2010

What to do with Oil Volatility

Tuesday, May 25, 2010

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Crude has been hammered pretty hard in recent weeks. My instincts tend, like yours probably do, toward being a net seller of options when implied volatility has become historically expensive. But it’s also a good idea to respect the current trend, as I mention here: While capturing historically high implied volatility is often a profitable approach, a price trend this strong should be respected, so any short volatility trade should either be long some gamma or should have…

You Don’t Need the VIX

Tuesday, May 4, 2010

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My colleague at Expiring Monthly, Adam Warner, has taken people to task over the last several days for obsessing over the VIX, and especially for misapplying it: OK, what’s wrong with this statement: Look at that…$VIX drops below 20 and pigs fly again.  Only reliable indicator that I know of that level. If you answered “everything” you would be correct. But let’s see how far off the reservation someone can go in 140…

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