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Henry Hub or Henry Higgins? How Not to Trade Natural Gas

Thursday, December 3, 2009

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In early September, I tried to take the other side of the case against UNG, the popular natural gas ETF, regarding its perceived failure to track spot natural gas prices (“The Fuss Over Natural Gas“). At the time, I admitted that my defense – roughly, “it isn’t as bad as all that” – was anecdotal and didn’t address any sof the fundamental worries that caused the dislocation in the first place. I also warned that UNG shareholders…

Volatility Tracker: Reversion to the Trend

Monday, November 9, 2009

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Volatility Tracker for the week of November 8, 2009 I wondered last week whether we would see a return to the reflation rally or were entering a new regime dominated by mean reversion. The price action last week counts in favor of both, as we reverted to the closing highs of the prior week; I expect a more definitive answer by November options expiration. The sale of out of the money equity index puts and/or put spreads I suggested last…

The Fuss Over Natural Gas

Wednesday, September 2, 2009

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People have been up in arms for months now about the troubles at the United States Natural Gas Fund, LP (NYSE: UNG), the ETF designed to track the price of natural gas. And, as far as I can tell, rightly so: the whole point of ETFs is that they were meant to be a nearly frictionless, relatively simple alternative to the clunky closed-end funds (CEF) and managed products that our parents and grandparents had to contend with. But UNG recently…

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