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Going Nowhere Fast

Mon, Apr 7, 2008 | Jared

Market commentary, Volatility

Markets ripped higher pre-open, gave it all back right away, moved higher again, and then gave it all back again through to the close. There: we just saved you six and a half hours, you didn’t miss a thing.

Alcoa announced earnings after the close and missed and is down another 15 cents after a -1.50 day.

Indexes hit some overhead resistance and volume was really blah today. The VIX, which was down another 3% intraday, closed down just 0.03.

Great comment from Bill Luby today:

In some respects, volatility is the opposite of liquidity, so those who are wondering why the VIX has a 21 handle and is trading below the 200 day SMA for the first time in months can look to the recent dramatic expansion of the money supply for a large part of the explanation. [VIX and More]

In other words: liquidity providers may be the heroes of investment banks, but they’re the mortal enemies of premium sellers! :)

Reversal Readings

DIA, SPY, IWM, QQQQ – all middling
XLE – Energy – 99.91
EWZ – Brazil – 99.70
EWA – Australia – 99.90
XLV – Healthcare – 95
RTH – Retail – 7

Some volume today in the June VIX calls at 27.50 and 32.50 – 15k each – which needn’t mean anything at all.  But it sure does seem like a great time to get long some long-dated vega.  Sure, maybe we push lower from here on the volatility indexes (i.e. maybe this bear market rally finds some legs); but can you doubt that we don’t see some implied volatility popping before June or July expiration?

More on this topic (What's this?)
The VIX Indicator Heads Higher
IS THE VIX A SIGNAL OF FURTHER SELLING TO COME?
Read more on Volatility Index (VIX) at Wikinvest

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