Indecision is a Decision
Some quick thoughts tonight:
1. The VIX dipped below 20 intraday for the second time this year. The 1-month VIX continues to head lower relative to the 3-month VXV, and the more stretched this ratio gets, the more bearish that reading is for stocks. The funny thing about volatility readings is that they’ll tend to drift lower, and then spike up suddenly. We’re due for a jump in the VIX – maybe not now, but soon.
2. Lots of resistance overhead in the indexes – the SPX nearly gave itself a concussion today at 1397, and we expect more tension around this 1400 level until it is either decisively broken or is retreated from. In the passive voice.
3. Leadership may be changing here. The energy sector (XLE), down 2.62% today, may have finally stopped its unbelievable tear. Pair this with fantastic gains in the financials (XLF, up 3.6%), real estate (IYR, up 2.3%), and transports (IYT, up 2.11%), and along with the already-strong tech, you’ve got the possibility of some broader leadership forming for a bullish move.
If these points seem in tension, that’s just because nobody has any idea where this market is going. We wouldn’t mind if it just stayed put for awhile.
Thu, Apr 24, 2008 | Jared
Market commentary, Volatility