Condor Options

It was a Fed day classic. Punters buy, buy, buy just before and immediately after the release of the FOMC policy statement, hoping for some kind of surprise (or surprise reaction) that will spark a rally. Then when the smoke clears to reveal that nothing at all has changed – except that the market is still overbought – buyers disappear like ghosts, and Kenny Rogers knows when to run. Lessons to be learned? You bet.

If you just can’t help yourself and simply have to play the Fed trade, remember:

• Whatever happens in the few minutes after the statement comes out is usually just noise. You might be able to profit from it, but you have to be a fast trader.
• Don’t trust the initial reaction. Once traders make up their minds about which way the market is going to move, they’re as likely to be wrong about the longer-term direction as they are to be right. As we saw today, the reaction offered a nice chance to bag a profit with puts on SPY or QQQQ – but it probably isn’t a good idea to hold the bulk of your position overnight.

Bottom line: It takes at least a day or two for the market to digest any Fed monetary-policy statement, especially in the current highly charged atmosphere of tension between inflation and recession-plus-liquidity-squeeze. By Friday, we might have a chance of knowing where the market really is headed post-Fed.