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Weekend Volatility Review

Sat, Dec 1, 2007 | Jared

Market commentary, Volatility

11-30-07 SPX Implied Volatility and Historical VolatilitySure, there was some rallying this week. But the more important news (to us) is the volatility crush. Remember that day, way back when the VIX was sporting a 31 handle? No, I’m not talking about those sweaty days of August – I mean November 12.  Fast forward to the end of the month, and we have the following major index volatility readings:

VIX (SPX): 22.87

VXN (NDX): 28.65

RVX (Russell2k): 29.61

And the VXV, the 3-month version of the VIX, is at 23.93.  Note that the VXV is only 16% off its recent high, while the VIX has fallen 26%.   That’s to be expected, given the longer view of the former index.

Oh, about that chart: just wanted to point out that the implied volatility on SPX just dipped under the 30 day historical volatility.  What does that mean? Nothing, necessarily.  Sometimes the IV functions as a leading indicator; but sometimes the IV and HV can diverge and stay away from each other for awhile, like we saw back in March/April.  Let’s not hope for the latter scenario, because it’s no fun trading a market that is volatile in actuality but isn’t registered as (or implied as) being volatile in the options: that’s like getting all the risk and all the worry, and none of the reward.

[tags] VIX, VXN, RVX, VXV, volatility, SPX, options[/tags]

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Read more on Historical Volatility, Volatility Index (VIX) at Wikinvest

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  1. Weekend Volatility Review - Zecco.com Says:

    [...] read the rest of this article, click over to our options trading blog… Published Saturday, December 01, 2007 5:46 AM by condoroptions RSS [...]

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