We unveiled one of our favorite 4PM pastimes back in April: called The Correlation Game, the steps are simple: Step One: Point your browser at Yahoo Finance, Marketwatch, or whatever mainstream financial media portal suits your fancy. Step Two: Scan the top headline, which is typically of the form, “Markets move x on news that y.” If the headline includes a dubious assumption or inference about causation, take a drink. Step Three: the next player moves to the…
Sunday, August 10, 2008
Random Roger, following up on the 300-point rally meme, agrees that during bear markets, there does tend to be more volatility. Remember, volatility doesn’t necessarily equal whatever is happening (or not happening) in the VIX. And more importantly, volatility doesn’t equal large-size selloffs – monster one-day rallies are constitutive of volatility, too! Adam has had enough of people deriving some major magical causal link between the price of crude and equity rallies. We couldn’t agree more – oil-related stories are…
Wednesday, June 18, 2008
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We got a round of the correlation game started this afternoon, but it went nowhere fast: either headline writers are getting smarter, or today’s action is just too tenuous even for them! We realize we’ve never codified the rules of this game before, so: Get your officemates or pals together, and visit the financial homepage of any mainstream media outlet. Y! Finance, Bloomberg, even CNN Money will do. Scan the top headline. If the headline makes a dubious…
Friday, April 25, 2008
A fun game on a slow Friday afternoon: take the front page headline on Yahoo Finance, and perform some desirable action if the headline makes a dubious assumption about causation. Move to the next headline, and repeat. We were going to suggest this as a drinking game, but we don’t want everyone drunk before the market’s even closed. Felix Salmon makes this point well. Financial journalists, for whatever reason, constantly report on correlated events (“Today, p occurred after news that…
Monday, August 18, 2008
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