RSS

Tag Archive | "garch"

Explaining Asymmetric Volatility

Tuesday, June 30, 2009

1 Comment

Measurements of volatility typically refer to the standard deviation of returns over a specified period. That obviously includes returns both below and above the mean. In practice, however, investors tend to be concerned primarily with downside risk, leading them to regard returns differently: positive and negative logarithmic returns that are equally distant from the mean are not treated as such by investors. Negative surprises have a much greater effect on volatility than do positive ones – witness the explosion of…

Forecasting S&P 500 Volatility

Friday, February 6, 2009

1 Comment

The academic literature seems conflicted on whether backward-looking methods of forecasting volatility are superior to methods deriving forecasts from the volatility implied by options prices.  This blog is intended for practitioners, not academics, so we’ll save ourselves and you, dear reader, the pain of a thorough literature review.  For the truly geeky, here’s an anecdotal trawl of some relevant papers, in no particular order: Ogus 2005, Geske 2007, Yu 2008, Benavides 2004, Aguilar 1999,

MEMBER CHOICES

Condor Options
Calendar Options
VIX Portfolio Hedging (VXH)
Don't miss another trade. Click here to become a member.
Advertise Here