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Tag Archive | "Inflation"

A Pause in Treasury Yields

Thursday, June 18, 2009

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A Bloomberg item out this morning wonders whether long-term Treasury yields have moved too far, too fast: The CHART OF THE DAY shows the difference between the yields on 10-year Treasuries and the year-over-year consumer price index, known as real yields, over the last 20 years. The gap approached 5 percent yesterday, the most since it was above 5 percent in December 1994, signaling bond investors concerned about inflation have pushed yields too high too quickly, according to Michael Shaoul, chief…

Punctured Rally

Monday, May 12, 2008

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The rally off the March lows is starting to seem like a hot air balloon that has sprung a leak and is getting ready to collapse in on itself.  For today’s rally to be believable, we’d need to see a lot more volume than this. NYSE volume made a new low for the year, and the lack of significant news today suggests this is likely some short-covering rather than a genuine bullish vindication. The ratio of front-month to 3-month volatility is stretched…

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