So, uh, we have some LEAP options that are older than those Chinese gymnasts. The word on the street is that they would’ve done even better this week, but some of them are still teething. The NYSE $TRIN is around 1.30, a level we haven’t seen since July 29. For context, TRIN readings of 2.00 (0.75) are generally considered to denote oversold (overbought) conditions. TRIN pushed above 2.00 on that date back in July, and the markets moved significantly higher…
Tuesday, July 22, 2008
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The short-term bottom that formed on July 17 and the rally the following day were marked by incredible volume and by a convincing breadth reversal. Since then, volume has trailed off quite a bit (as you would expect). More importantly, even though the indexes have rallied up this morning off of their premarket lows, breadth has turned quiet negative, and the $TRIN, $TICK, and put/call readings are all flat-to-uninspiring. We suppose the key question here is whether the markets will…
Tuesday, May 27, 2008
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Steven Sears in this weekend’s Striking Price is still on board the “Keep the VIX in perspective” train: Stop obsessing about the VIX. The Chicago Board Options Exchange’s Market Volatility Index (VIX) is many things, just not all things. It can rise or fall for reasons that have more to do with trading type than market direction. During the week, some investors sold short-term hedges and bought long-term hedges. This exacerbated the VIX’s recent lows,…
Monday, May 12, 2008
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The rally off the March lows is starting to seem like a hot air balloon that has sprung a leak and is getting ready to collapse in on itself. For today’s rally to be believable, we’d need to see a lot more volume than this. NYSE volume made a new low for the year, and the lack of significant news today suggests this is likely some short-covering rather than a genuine bullish vindication. The ratio of front-month to…
Wednesday, August 13, 2008
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