The Uselessness of Prediction Markets
You can make a Dutch Book against the Presidential prediction contracts at Intrade.com: Step 1: Sell an identical number of contracts of each of the three active Presidential contracts – Obama, Clinton, and McCain. Hit the bid. Step 2: Wait until the election is over. You’ll pay out the maximum loss on the contract that won, and keep the premium on the other two. You’re guaranteed a net profit, while a buyer of all three is guaranteed a net loss.…
Wednesday, October 1, 2008
1 Comment