In spite of all the fashionable buying today, our outlook over the next week or so isn’t particularly bullish, and here are some reasons why: Historically, it is really uncommon for the market to move up 2% the morning before a Fed announcement… …and in general, these big Fed rallies tend to end either in boredom or in tears over the following several trading days. Over the past decade, these kinds of flashy rallies have been sustained less than 33% of the time…
Wednesday, June 18, 2008
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We got a round of the correlation game started this afternoon, but it went nowhere fast: either headline writers are getting smarter, or today’s action is just too tenuous even for them! We realize we’ve never codified the rules of this game before, so: Get your officemates or pals together, and visit the financial homepage of any mainstream media outlet. Y! Finance, Bloomberg, even CNN Money will do. Scan the top headline. If the headline makes a dubious assumption about causation, everyone take a…
Thursday, May 29, 2008
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Maybe it’s just us, but markets seem really boring and indecisive this week. There’s not much to talk about unless you want to talk oil or bonds. We’re beyond sick of hearing and talking about oil (though we’re dipping a toe into some short positions here), and although bonds are always more exciting than people give them credit for (we’re still in love with munis this year), well, meh. We’re in the mood to do another newsletter takedown, so if you…
Wednesday, May 14, 2008
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The Dow shed one hundred points in the last hour and a half of trading. The Dow and S&P held onto some gains, but the Russell 2000 and the Nasdaq 100 actually closed the morning gap and ended the day in the red. The late day selling seemed to be led down by large cap tech, as GOOG AAPL RIMM BIDU all moved lower. Volume was a bit higher – back toward average levels at least, though most of that came…
Monday, April 7, 2008
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Markets ripped higher pre-open, gave it all back right away, moved higher again, and then gave it all back again through to the close. There: we just saved you six and a half hours, you didn’t miss a thing. Alcoa announced earnings after the close and missed and is down another 15 cents after a -1.50 day. Indexes hit some overhead resistance and volume was really blah today. The VIX, which was down another 3% intraday, closed down just 0.03. Great comment from…
Tuesday, August 5, 2008
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