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Tag Archive | "statistics"

Keeping Our Heads Down

Tuesday, September 30, 2008

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While we’ve been communicating more actively than usual with subscribers, things have been somewhat quieter here on the free part of the site.  The reason?  We don’t expect historical and statistical studies to be nearly as helpful in a market environment like this one.  And since we don’t have any unique insight into the likelihood of various political and economic events coming to pass, we figure your RSS reader or pony express boy or whatever is already loaded with…

Random Walks and Random Jumps: Taleb on Volatility

Wednesday, September 17, 2008

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Nassim Nicholas Taleb, author of the widely discussed The Black Swan and Fooled By Randomness, is out with a new paper.  “The Fourth Quadrant: A Map of the Limits of Statistics” pursues a thesis very familiar to his readers, namely that economists and finance professionals put society at risk by offering false comfort in the form of statistical models. Risk Does Not Equal Volatility The novel effort here is Taleb’s attempt to map out which kinds of risks and…

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