In spite of all the fashionable buying today, our outlook over the next week or so isn’t particularly bullish, and here are some reasons why: Historically, it is really uncommon for the market to move up 2% the morning before a Fed announcement… …and in general, these big Fed rallies tend to end either in boredom or in tears over the following several trading days. Over the past decade, these kinds of flashy rallies have been sustained less than 33% of the time…
Wednesday, June 18, 2008
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We got a round of the correlation game started this afternoon, but it went nowhere fast: either headline writers are getting smarter, or today’s action is just too tenuous even for them! We realize we’ve never codified the rules of this game before, so: Get your officemates or pals together, and visit the financial homepage of any mainstream media outlet. Y! Finance, Bloomberg, even CNN Money will do. Scan the top headline. If the headline makes a dubious assumption about causation, everyone take a…
Thursday, June 12, 2008
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For mental health reasons, we hardly ever watch CNBC anymore. But glancing at it this afternoon, at one point we saw three separate live graphics displaying the price of crude oil. So much screen space was taken up by live oil trackers, there wasn’t enough space left to show the chart of whatever alternative energy company they were pumping. Was oil making a new high today? Did the U.S. unilaterally attack another country? Did someone accidentally double-park in the Strait of Hormuz? …
Wednesday, June 11, 2008
Forgive us a short rant this evening. This country is sick. When the three main engines of growth – consumer spending, real estate, and financial services – are broken, it’s just not possible to make any economic progress. And for just a moment, let’s think about how pathetic those key sectors really are. Cogent analysis of our per capita consumption requires some historical knowledge, since no contemporary people compares with our particular level of decadence. At least the Romans had some…
Thursday, May 29, 2008
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Maybe it’s just us, but markets seem really boring and indecisive this week. There’s not much to talk about unless you want to talk oil or bonds. We’re beyond sick of hearing and talking about oil (though we’re dipping a toe into some short positions here), and although bonds are always more exciting than people give them credit for (we’re still in love with munis this year), well, meh. We’re in the mood to do another newsletter takedown, so if you…
Tuesday, August 5, 2008
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