In a note yesterday morning to members, we were looking for an oversold rally, and said rally still has yet to materialize in any big way. We still think the S&P will close the week closer to 1300 than to 1250, but that’s a conviction loosely held. The two biggest questions on our minds for the remainder of the week are: Will the financials stop dragging everybody down? $BIX, $BKX, XLF all had a good day today, but they…
Tuesday, August 5, 2008
Comments Off
In spite of all the fashionable buying today, our outlook over the next week or so isn’t particularly bullish, and here are some reasons why: Historically, it is really uncommon for the market to move up 2% the morning before a Fed announcement… …and in general, these big Fed rallies tend to end either in boredom or in tears over the following several trading days. Over the past decade, these kinds of flashy rallies have been sustained less than…
Thursday, May 22, 2008
Our VIX post from yesterday got picked up by two of the deans of options blogging, Adam Warner (shown) and Bill Luby: The Big Question for the VIX VIX Jumping the Shark? VIX and VIX (and thanks also to Abnormal Returns for the link) Not much to add in response to all this, except to agree that the increased coverage of this one instrument doesn’t change the fact that it still definitely serves a purpose. When…
Wednesday, May 14, 2008
Comments Off
The Dow shed one hundred points in the last hour and a half of trading. The Dow and S&P held onto some gains, but the Russell 2000 and the Nasdaq 100 actually closed the morning gap and ended the day in the red. The late day selling seemed to be led down by large cap tech, as GOOG AAPL RIMM BIDU all moved lower. Volume was a bit higher – back toward average levels at least, though most of that…
Sunday, May 11, 2008
Comments Off
The S&P 500 is sitting right at the trendline that extends from the March lows, and is also right at the 20DMA, which is a reasonable place to be after drifting above that moving average for the past couple weeks. Market internals suggest that this pullback may be about finished, providing a setup for some further upside; breadth and on balance volume improved on Friday. At the same time, options sentiment is still bearish, and a few technical indicators (CCI,…
Wednesday, August 20, 2008
Comments Off